Original AB CRE Advisors research built from SEC EDGAR filings — tracking every CMBS loan maturing in the next 12 months and how much of that wall is already under stress. Updated monthly.
As of April 2026, 1,030 CMBS loans totaling $15.6 billion are scheduled to mature within the next 12 months. Of those, 15.3% show signs of distress through watchlist placement, special servicing transfer, or active workout. The distress rate peaked at 40.8% in April 2025 and has since moderated, though multifamily remains the most stressed asset class at 42.4% of maturing exposure. Data is sourced from SEC EDGAR Form ABS-EE filings under Regulation AB II, representing a rolling 12-month forward window updated monthly.
| Asset Class | Total | Distressed | Rate |
|---|
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form ABS-EE filings under Regulation AB II. Each monthly cohort captures all CMBS loans maturing within a rolling 12-month forward window — meaning each row represents a different set of loans as the window advances. Cohort growth reflects the window moving into denser maturity concentrations from 2017-vintage 10-year loans.
Distress definition: Workout + Special Servicing + Watchlist, prioritized in that order. A loan is classified at its highest distress tier only. Industrial, self storage, and warehouse show 0% distress in the current cohort. Not investment advice.
Additional data modules are in development, each following the same methodology-first, sourced approach as the modules above.
Cap Rate Spread Monitor
Multifamily and commercial cap rates vs. the 10-year Treasury — the single most important signal for when deals pencil. Sourced from CBRE quarterly surveys.
Multifamily Supply Pipeline
U.S. Census Bureau building permits by MSA — tracking where new supply is concentrated and where constrained markets offer better risk-adjusted entry points.
Rescue Capital Opportunity Index
AB CRE Advisors' proprietary composite score across CMBS distress, cap rate spreads, supply pressure, and bridge loan maturities — identifying where rescue capital is most needed.
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