Original AB CRE Advisors research built from SEC EDGAR filings — tracking every CMBS loan maturing in the next 12 months and how much of that wall is already under stress. Updated monthly.
As of July 2026, 1,630 CMBS loans totaling $24.5 billion are scheduled to mature within the next 12 months — 213 more loans and $2.4 billion more balance than the prior period. Of those, 14.8% show signs of distress through watchlist placement, special servicing transfer, or active workout. The distress rate fell 1.2 points even as the distressed count rose to 241, because the rolling window is advancing into the dense 2017-vintage maturity belt and pulling in performing paper faster than distressed. The rate peaked at 40.8% in April 2025; multifamily remains the most stressed asset class at 36.2% of maturing exposure, with lodging at 28.9% and office at 26.0%. Data is sourced from SEC EDGAR Form ABS-EE filings under Regulation AB II, representing a rolling 12-month forward window updated monthly.
| Asset Class | Total | Distressed | Rate |
|---|
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form ABS-EE filings under Regulation AB II. Each monthly cohort captures all CMBS loans maturing within a rolling 12-month forward window — meaning each row represents a different set of loans as the window advances. Cohort growth reflects the window moving into denser maturity concentrations from 2017-vintage 10-year loans.
Distress definition: Workout + Special Servicing + Watchlist, prioritized in that order. A loan is classified at its highest distress tier only. The "Other" category includes self storage, industrial, warehouse, and other specialty property types, which show minimal distress in the current cohort. Not investment advice.
Additional data modules are in development, each following the same methodology-first, sourced approach as the modules above.
Cap Rate Spread Monitor
Multifamily and commercial cap rates vs. the 10-year Treasury — the single most important signal for when deals pencil. Sourced from CBRE quarterly surveys.
Multifamily Supply Pipeline
U.S. Census Bureau building permits by MSA — tracking where new supply is concentrated and where constrained markets offer better risk-adjusted entry points.
Rescue Capital Opportunity Index
AB CRE Advisors' proprietary composite score across CMBS distress, cap rate spreads, supply pressure, and bridge loan maturities — identifying where rescue capital is most needed.
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